http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen070802.asp
Turning Point

History being made. The West appears clueless.

Michael Ledeen

July 8, 2002

wo bombs were found last week in downtown Tehran, one in an automobile in front of the Judiciary Ministry, the other at the intriguing "Council of Deciding What is Best For the Government." Dozens of anti-government organizations are calling for peaceful demonstrations on July 9, Tuesday, the third anniversary of the monster student rally against the regime at the university, and an army officer, thus far anonymous and perhaps even apocryphal, is widely quoted as having said "if a million people demonstrate July 9th we shall arrest the leaders of the Islamic Republic and turn them over to the people."

That is probably too much to hope for, given that the entire Western world is actively appeasing the Iranian tyranny. The European Union recently lifted trade sanctions on the Islamic Republic, and the misnamed U.N. Human Rights Commission in Geneva failed to condemn Iran, even though its many gross violations of human decency fill a fat dossier. The U.S. Department of State, to its credit, puts Iran atop its annual list of state sponsors of terrorism, and describes Iranian human-rights violations in considerable detail. One marvels, therefore, at the combination of silence from the top officials at the State Department and the National Security Council and State's continued (not-so-secret contacts) with the Iranian regime to talk about "cooperation" in Afghanistan (where the Iranians are training and arming terrorists to subvert the fragile government and kill western peacekeepers) and Iraq (where the Iranians are happy to work with us in bringing down Saddam. But with allies like that, who needs enemies?).

There is still a day to go in which the American government can place itself firmly in support of freedom for the Iranian people, who are groaning under a constantly mounting repression from their ever more insecure regime. The mullahs have become so paranoid that it is almost impossible to keep up with the endless firings of those judged insufficiently loyal and their replacement with the blindly faithful. As one Iranian friend pointed out to me, Iran looks more and more like Saudi Arabia: Rafasnjani's son was just named ambassador to Germany.

The paranoia goes hand in hand with the widespread conviction that the regime could fall at any moment. Part of the Mehrabad Airport in Tehran has been blocked to public access, at least one landing strip has been closed to commercial traffic, and a number of airplanes have been stationed on the tarmac. It could well be that some of the regime's nastier rats are planning to abandon the sinking ship if they are unable to contain the people's rage. Indeed, in recent days private passengers have been removed from commercial flights to make room for the families of the country's most powerful men, suggesting that the exodus may have already begun.

Tehran is under virtual military rule, with new security organizations seen in the streets carrying out random roadblocks, arrests, and beatings. Similar reports are coming in from other cities, although details are sparse. There are also reports of governmental attacks on clandestine explosives deposits and manufacturing sites.

Meanwhile, Saddam has moved thousands of his best anti-Iranian terrorists, members of the Iraqi Mujahedin, into Iran to carry out sabotage and attempt to inflame the demonstrators (if Iran is going to work against Saddam, he'll certainly do his damnedest to get them first). The Iranians, in return, have moved troops, artillery and missiles to the Iraqi border, planning to assault the Mujahedin camps if things get hot enough.

The whole region is like a Colorado or Arizona landscape, a vast tinderbox waiting for a spark to set it aflame. We hold matches galore: radio and television stations, bully pulpits all over Washington, plenty of high-tech communications toys that the Iranian opposition could use with devastating effect, and money for the overwhelming majority of hard-working Iranians who today cannot subsist on their salaries. Is there really no one in a position of authority who understands the importance of our political and moral voice at this potential turning point in Middle East history?

Faster, please. It may happen tomorrow.