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War on Saddam: ‘When, not if’
July 18, 2002
Jane's Report
Despite recent
attempts by both the US and British administrations to play down speculation
that a military campaign against the Iraqi regime will be launched in the near
future, it is now clear that Washington intends to take steps to neutralise
Saddam Hussein. JID assesses the pros and cons of this endeavour – and the
potential casualties among US allies in the Middle East.
Baghdad's latest refusal to accept the redeployment of UN weapons inspectors,
despite two days of negotiations with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in Vienna
this month, has provided Washington with a welcome opportunity to step up
pressure on its allies to support military action against the Iraqi regime.
However, the very fact that Annan stressed to the Iraqis that such guarantees
would be outside the UN's remit has convinced the Arab world that the US remains
determined to attack Iraq, regardless of any move to redeploy the weapons
inspectors. In fact, as one Arab diplomat told JID last week: "We are now
convinced that military action [against Iraq] is merely a case of when, not if.
The consequences are likely to prove very far-reaching."
Fear over rising anti-American sentiments throughout the Muslim world has
already led the authorities in Saudi Arabia to refuse to countenance the use of
bases in the country by US forces in any military campaign aimed at an Islamic
state – even Afghanistan or Iraq. This has forced the US to switch operations
during the planning stages to more supportive countries, such as Kuwait, Qatar
and NATO member Turkey.
However, recent suggestions that other Arab states, such as Jordan, might be
asked to provide facilities, in order to provide a launching point for an attack
against Iraq from the West, have provoked serious opposition from the Jordanian
government. Endorsement of such a request would risk weakening the position of
King Abdullah.
Perhaps of even greater concern to the Arab world is whether it would prove able
to contain the inevitable popular backlash that would follow a major US-led
military campaign against Saddam, who has been active in cultivating his image
as the one Arab leader capable of standing up to the US.
The most vulnerable Arab leaders are those who are perceived as being most
closely associated with the West: Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.
And then there is the as yet unanswered question of who will replace Saddam
should he be ousted by force. There is no obvious candidate favoured by the West
and the country's Shia majority can be expected to look towards Iran.
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