http://www.forward.com/issues/2002/02.06.21/news1.html
By MARC PERELMAN
FORWARD STAFF
JUNE 21, 2002
In its all-out effort to oust Saddam Hussein, the Bush administration is reaching out to an unlikely ally: a Shi'ite opposition group advocating an Islamic revolution in Iraq, based in and armed by Iran.
In doing this, sources said, Washington is also testing Tehran's reaction to an American military assault on its Iraqi neighbor while assuring Iranian leaders that their country would not be next on the list.
Representatives of the opposition group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq — or SCIRI — were part of a delegation of four Iraqi opposition groups that met earlier this month with American officials in Washington to discuss details of increased American assistance. SCIRI is the main group representing the Shi'ite majority in Iraq and as such is seen as a key actor in any uprising against Saddam.
Ahmed al-Bayati, SCIRI's representative at the talks, told the Forward he will travel to Tehran in the coming weeks to brief Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, the spiritual leader of the group, and tell him that Washington is "serious about regime change and wants to cooperate with the Iraqi opposition."
In addition, al-Bayati will ask his leader to convey to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reassurances that a American-engineered regime change in Iraq is no danger to Tehran, two sources close to the conversations told the Forward on condition of anonymity.
"SCIRI can be used by Washington to send a message to the Shi'ite community in Iraq, to help in a military strike and as a conduit to Tehran," one of the sources said.
The Iranian regime has been on high alert since President Bush, in his State of the Union address in January, placed it alongside Iraq and North Korea on an "axis of evil" of countries developing weapons of mass destruction and likely to provide them to terrorist organizations. In addition, the Bush administration has said it is elaborating a new doctrine of preemptive strikes against rogue regimes or groups. American troops have been sweeping through bordering Afghanistan for the past several months.
Given this mutual distrust, several observers said active American-Iran cooperation to overthrow Saddam was highly unlikely. However, the United States and Iran have already collaborated in funding an armed opposition faction, the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. In addition, Iran fought a bitter eight-year war against Iraq and even reportedly accepted an American request to conduct a diversion to help a previous uprising attempt in Iraq in the mid-1990s.
"SCIRI would not be talking to the CIA without Iran's knowledge and acknowledgment," said Vincent Cannistraro, the former head of the CIA's counterterrorism bureau. "And it allows us to test the waters over there."
In recent months, Bush signed two presidential orders asking the CIA to undertake a comprehensive, covert program to topple Saddam — including killing him if they act in self-defense. It allows the agency to use all available means, including the use of the CIA and U.S. Special Forces and expanding efforts to collect intelligence inside the Iraqi government, as well as increasing support for Iraqi opposition groups.
The new forms of assistance to the opposition were high on the agenda of the meetings between State Department, White House and Pentagon officials and representatives of the so-called "group of four" — SCIRI, the Kurdish Democratic Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Iraqi National Action — which took place on the sidelines of conference on Iraq hosted by the American University in Washington, D.C. on June 8.
While State Department and Pentagon officials did not answer requests for comments, a representative of the Iraqi opposition at the talks said American officials offered "all kind of cooperation."
The Iraqi said SCIRI had not "answered yet" to the American entreaties, possibly indicating that there would be consultations with the group's leader and Iranian authorities on the issue.
Until now, the administration has been reluctant to engage directly the Kurds and the Shi'ite groups since it could revive the specter of a possible partition of Iraq, especially if it ends up creating an Iran-influenced Shi'ite area where, no doubt, SCIRI would be a major actor.
The group was founded in Iran in 1982 as a vehicle to gather Shi'ite support against Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war. It is headed by al-Hakim, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Muhsin al-Hakim, the spiritual leader of the Shi'ites from 1955 to 1970.
Experts say SCIRI is funded by Tehran and its "thousands" of troops are armed by the hard-line Revolutionary Guards. They have been launching attacks against Iraqi officials and installations from Iran for several years.
However, al-Bayati was careful to play down the potential differences with Washington. He brushed aside the Iranian backing and stressed that his group, despite its very name, does not advocate an Islamic state and had agreed to a platform calling for a parliamentary and federal system back in 1992 when it became a member of the umbrella opposition group, the Iraqi National Congress, or INC.
In addition, it was one of seven groups entitled to receive American money under the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, passed by both houses of Congress to support a transition to democracy in Iraq. Even though it refused the money and quit the INC that year because "the excessive American influence on the group would undermine our credibility in Iraq," al-Bayati stressed he continued to have contacts with American officials even after that, including a meeting with then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in September 2000.
While al-Bayati insisted that SCIRI still refused to accept American funding, observers say things may be changing. In Washington, al-Bayati met not only with the State Department but also with White House and Pentagon officials and possibly with intelligence officials. The group tried to bolster its profile by announcing just as the meetings were going on that its militants attacked the motorcade of a senior Iraqi official, killing three bodyguards.
"I believe SCIRI would accept weapons and training if they see America is serious," said the observer of the talks.
The talks also provide another indication of Washington's growing distrust of the INC. Its leader, Ahmed Chalabi, was noticeably absent during the talks — he reportedly canceled at the last minute. In addition, the INC has had to shut down some operations in recent weeks for lack of American funding.
And while the group of four claims it does not seek to replace the INC — the two Kurdish parties are still part of it — the tension is visible. Chalabi, for instance, recently went to Tehran to visit SCIRI's spiritual leader al-Hakim for the first time in two years, possibly to convince him to come back to the INC.
Faisal Qaraghobi, an INC official, denied that his group was being sidelined.
Still, the State Department and the CIA have recently increased their criticism of the INC for its reported inefficiency and excessive spending.
"The State Department is so bad that it would rather deal with SCIRI than the INC," said author Laurie Mylroie, the publisher of the Washington-based Iraq News online newsletter and a staunch INC supporter. "The contacts bother me very much because of the nature of the group. Why should the State Department be working with (and, in effect, promoting) any kind of Islamic fundamentalism? That they undercut the INC at the same time makes it all that much worse."
While the Pentagon and Congress have been more supportive of the INC, this could be changing too.
In a recent interview with the Forward, Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, a longstanding INC supporter, said that while it should remain the focus of American efforts, other groups should be consulted. In addition, a group of senators met with the group of four during a recent visit to London and the Senate is withholding INC funds.
As for the Pentagon, it sent its third-ranking official, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith, to meet June 11 with the group of four. Feith and Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy secretary of defense are seen as key advocates of a regime change in Iraq and considered staunch supporters of the INC.
Although there were reports that Feith urged the groups to work within the INC, al-Bayati said he had only told them to stay united.
The groups also met with two State Department officials, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, Marc Grossman, and the deputy assistant secretary for Near East affairs, Ryan Crocker, as well as the National Security Council official in charge of Iraq, Ben Miller.